Tuesday, December 1, 2015

The bottom line on Donald Trump

For some, it is fairly easy to be appealed to Donald Trump. After all, he is bringing his brash public personality to politics. He says politically incorrect things. He's appealing to disenchanted, angry white conservatives. He's bringing a brass and controversial style to presidential politics that hasn't been seen since George Wallace ran for the highest office in the land in 1968.

Trump has to be given credit -- he tapped into an upset constituency and he gets a break because he is more of a pop culture icon than an actual politician. As many political pundits keep predicting (and hoping for) his demise -- his support has proven resilient. Even though he says fairly egregious things. Even though he exaggerates. Even though he supports lies. Even though he is unapologetic in his appeal the most xenophobic and racist parts of the Republican Party base.

It should be known that I have no dog in this fight, per se. Clinton isn't centrist enough for my taste. Sanders liberal and progressive politics will just entrench more partisanship in Washington. Kasich is the most likable GOP candidate, but he lacks the political savvy to really stand up against the most extreme elements of the GOP; Cruz is too partisan. Carson is too ignorant.

And then there's Donald Trump.

Trump's success is the manifestation of two things: a much more politically extremist Republican Party and the GOP's inability to stop prostituting conservative anger for votes. He's more or less the endgame monster that the party made when it began to reject effective, centrist governing in the 1970s. Trump is not a game-changer; he is not "shaking things up"; he is proving to lack a degree of maturity that should be expected out of a politician, especially one that is going to be entrusted to most powerful political office on earth.

Trump's success, if you will, so far is because of the emotional statement that his campaign represents. In an election that is short on candidates being effective at actually governing (Sanders, Clinton, Cruz, and Rubio have no signature legislation; Firiona, Carson, and Trump have zero political experience), it's not surprising that voters are supporting candidates by wearing the hearts on their sleeve. The world and this country is too dynamic to really have an American president that is either drunk on partisanship or drunk on their own ego.

Here's the truth: Trump will be undone due to the primary rules of the Republican Party that favor much more pragmatic candidates. Nomination races are not won so much by popular votes in the primaries as they are by the delegates that are sent to the National Convention. The last five Republican nominees for President -- Mitt Romney, John McCain, George W. Bush, Bob Dole, and George H.W. Bush -- all came from the more pragmatic half of the Republican Party. Moreover, Trump's campaign has little political experience and their battles will be lost due to the GOP's system on delegates.

This is why I maintain that the Republican nominee for President will be either Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, or John Kasich.

I won't go so as far as Donald Trump being the worst thing to ever happen to the Republican Party.  However, his divisive and pandering rhetoric that appeals to the most angry, xenophobic, and racist parts of the Republican Party base is the last thing that the American political scene needs.

American politics has become too partisan, too extremist, too tribal. Politicians care too much about grandstanding, self-aggrandizing, jockeying, and posturing rather than governing and that troubles me. Americans are willing to support candidates on emotion rather than nuanced fact or critical thinking, and it's scary. Trump's candidacy is a manifestation of the most disgusting parts of American politics and he represents a symbol of what is wrong with American politics today -- from politician to constituent.

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